Conclusion

In the last few months, the incredible pace with which users have been drawn to iMode has proven that the m-commerce business model is a viable one. WAP meanwhile has failed to inspire consumers throughout the world but is nevertheless steadily increasing its user base. In the medium term it may be the case that either WAP or iMode wins out (though not necessarily the technologically superior of the two - as shown with the VHS and Beta video standard wars of years ago). Alternatively, we may see WAP and iMode borrow heavily from each other as they are updated in the months to come, or we may see both technologies eclipsed by something new.

New technologies, such as Red Circle Technologies' Gimi (a means of using remote applications over a mobile phone by using voice commands) may unseat WAP and iMode. Or we may see consumers opting to stay with the current technologies, but using different form factors to access them, for example using Java Micro Edition or Windows CE powered palmtops to access information instead of mobile phones.

Will iMode Have an Impact Outside Japan?

NTT DoCoMo has recently made alliances with the European telecommunications company KPN with a view to giving customers outside of Japan a taste of their technology. The Japanese company has also recently announced a partnership with America Online, the world's leading Internet Service Provider. Together, they want to integrate the fixed and mobile Internet worlds, providing their own content portal, which they would like other service providers to use. In the US, carriers would be expected to use this joint portal for provision of content, following NTT DoCoMo's policy in Japan of having a massive official portal with plenty of content.

However, if carriers are going to make money from iMode they will seek independence from any official portal and create their own iMode portal sites. They could follow the lead of AOL in providing more social-oriented services like messaging and chat rooms. After all, the success of iMode in Japan has been due to its ability to bring entertainment and games to within easy reach of young Japanese on the move, as well as allowing them to communicate easily with their friends. Furthermore, by shunning an official portal, independent content providers will be better placed to provide personalisation of services, which is thought by many to be the key to customers' hearts.

These moves by NTT DoCoMo should see iMode gaining acceptance as a viable alternative to WAP around the world, and by ensuring that plenty of content is available before launching, iMode should avoid some of WAP's initial woes.

Will WAP and iMode Merge?

As strange as it may seem NTT DoCoMo has recently become a senior WAP Forum member, so the possibility of a merging of WAP and iMode may not be as far-fetched as it sounds. Both wireless technologies' markup languages are set to become much more alike by 2001 as NTT DoCoMo will by then have adopted an open Internet standard called eXtensible HyperText Markup Language (xHTML), which is the W3C's transitional language from the HTML of the past to the XML of the future (which WML is based on). This is a shrewd move for NTT DoCoMo because, given their success, they could have continued to use their cHTML language. Instead, they have seen that cHTML would probably be unattractive for developers who are going to have to adapt to using xHTML and eventually XML anyway, so the Japanese company decided a change would be needed.

WAP and iMode in the Third Generation

In the longer term, even with the deployment of the General Packet Radio Service in Europe and charges based on data volume, users will tire of the low bandwidth, small screen size and low-grade graphics of these technologies. In Japan, however, Internet cruising speeds will soon get a lot faster when the country becomes the first in the world to roll out its third generation mobile communications network infrastructure using wide-band Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA). Speeds of more than 300 Kbps should be possible by next year.

And by 2004, with the third generation networks installed in Europe and Japan, peak speeds could hit 2 Mbps - fast enough for high-quality music downloads, Web-casts of TV shows, virtual-reality games using the phone as an Internet link, and real-time video-conferencing.